The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating for a competitive district in Ohio towards Democrats.
Cook Political Report shifted its rating for Ohio’s 9th congressional district, a race between Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur and Republican candidate J.R. Majewski, from “toss up” to “lean Democrat.”
This comes as Majewski is facing criticism over misrepresenting his military punishment and service.
On Wednesday, the Associated Press reported that Majewski was demoted by the Air Force in September 2001 for driving drunk at Kadena Air Base in Japan. His campaign had previously told the AP that he was involved in a “brawl” which was the reason why he was demoted and could not re-enlist in the Air Force after his initial four years.
The Associated Press also reported that Majewski loaded planes at an air base in Qatar for six months, yet, he is on the campaign trail claiming to be an Air Force combat veteran who was deployed to Afghanistan after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
“Prior to the story, Democrats had been casting Majewski as an unhinged QAnon enthusiast who took part in a mob that attacked police. But it was far from clear those attacks would disqualify him in a GOP-redrawn seat that voted for Donald Trump by three points in 2020,” Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman wrote. “Allegations of stolen valor, however, are another story — they’re likelier to turn off independent voters who have moved on from January 6.”
After the report the House GOP campaign arm canceled a nearly $1 million ad buy in the district that was meant to target Kaptur and boost Majewski in the final weeks leading up to the midterm elections, according to AdImpact.
Another reason for the shift is that Kaptur is a really strong candidate. Though her district was redrawn into one Donald Trump would have won by at least 3 points in 2020, Kaptur “ran 11 points ahead of Joe Biden’s margin in the three counties that carried over to the new 9th [Congressional district],” Wasserman wrote.
“The same type of overperformance would allow her to win comfortably in the new, Trump +3 seat,” he added.
