The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted the Pennsylvania senate race from “toss up” to “lean Democrat,” which means Democrats have the advantage heading into the November midterm elections, fewer than three months away.
The change comes as democratic candidate, John Fetterman campaigns to portray his Republican opponent, celebrity TV Dr. Mehmet Oz, as a carpetbagger out of touch with the average voter in Pennsylvania. It certainly did not help Oz this week when his video mispronouncing the name of a Pennsylvania-based grocery store chain and complaining about the price of crudité went viral.
“Fancy French appetizer plates aside, a simple glance at Oz compared to the hoodie-and-shorts clad tattooed Fetterman, and it’s not surprising to discern who comes across as more authentic and relatable to voters,” Cook Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote.
The most recent polling from the state shows Fetterman leading Oz by 18 points, 51%–33%. The FiveThirtyEight average of polls has Fetterman with a nearly 12 point lead over Oz.
“There is a case to be made at this juncture, given how well-known Oz already is — and subsequently disliked — that even if the TV host and Republicans are able to relentlessly attack Fetterman and bring down the Democrats’ numbers, that rehabilitating Oz’s image will be beyond difficult,” Taylor wrote.
For now, Democrats have the advantage, but in a swing state like Pennsylvania, Cook notes that “it’s not out of the question that this could move back as the election nears.”
The Cook Political Report also shifted its Senate race ratings in Colorado from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat” and in Utah from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”
