Democrats are now favored to hold a key Senate seat and flip another, according to a major election forecaster.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball election forecast has shifted the closely watched Senate races in Arizona and Pennsylvania from ‘toss-ups’ to ‘lean Democratic,’ meaning Democrats have the advantage heading into the November midterm elections, fewer than three months away.
Democrats are coming off a string of legislative victories, the most recent being the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s approval rating is creeping back up, gas prices are falling and there’s an increased focus on abortion after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
“We are moving the Senate races in Arizona and Pennsylvania from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on account of candidate weaknesses for Republicans in both states and what appears to be a not-as-bleak environment for Democrats,” the forecaster said in a statement on Wednesday.
In Arizona, Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is seeking re-election against Trump-endorsed candidate Blake Masters. Masters easily won the Republican primary but has stumbled in the matched up against Kelly. Since his primary victory Masters has attempted to move back to the center on issues like abortion and the 2020 election. But, he’s still falling behind in the polls and the money race.
“Taking into account the Democratic spending disparity, Kelly’s candidate-quality advantages over Masters and the environment looking not as bad for Democrats, we don’t really think this is a true toss-up anymore. So leans Democratic it is,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors wrote.
Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, Democrat Lt. Governor John Fetterman is competing against Trump-backed celebrity surgeon Dr. Mehmet Oz to fill the seat of retiring Republican senator Pat Toomey.
Throughout the campaign, Fetterman has painted Oz as a carpetbagger from New Jersey out of touch with the average voter in Pennsylvania. It appears to be working with voters as Fetterman is ahead in several polls. It also certainly did not help Oz when he posted a video on social media complaining about the price of crudité and mispronouncing the name of a Pennsylvania-based grocery store chain.
Cook Political Report, another election forecaster, recently shifted the Pennsylvania Senate race to ‘lean Democratic’ as well.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball noted that the overall contest for control of the Senate is a toss-up “with 49 seats at least leaning to each party and a couple of Toss-ups overall, Georgia and Nevada.”
