Influential Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, told the Washington Post that he does not believe the GOP primary polls out of his state showing Donald Trump trouncing the rest of the Republican field.
According to the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released on Monday, 51% of Republican caucusgoers select Trump as their first choice. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is in a very distant second with 19%, Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley in third with 16% followed by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy 5% and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 4%.
Vander Plaats, who endorsed DeSantis last month, told the Washington Post that he does not believe the polls because it’s a different story on the ground.
“I don’t believe them, and there’s a reason I don’t believe them — because it does not match up at all to what I’m hearing on the ground,” Vander Plaats said. “I’m a big fan of [pollster] Ann Selzer, but she’s been wrong before. In the 2010 gubernatorial primary, she was off by 21 points the Sunday before the Tuesday governor’s primary, and primaries are way easier to poll than caucuses”
He believes Trump’s support is actually in the low 40s and DeSantis’ is in the mid 20s.
“I don’t think he’s got a 30-point lead,” Vander Plaats said referring to Trump. “And I think there’s plenty of time to make that up.”
Vander Plaats endorsed Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2008, former senator Rick Santorum in 2012 and Sen. Ted Cruz in 2016, all of whom went on to win the Iowa GOP caucuses.
In the 2024 GOP primary, he endorsed DeSantis telling Fox News, “we need a president who can serve two terms, not one term. We don’t need a president that’s gonna be a lame duck on day one.”
He also said his endorsement coupled with Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds‘ could propel DeSantis to victory in the caucuses, which could give the Florida governor much needed momentum in subsequent primaries.
Weeks after his endorsement, Vander Plaats is more measured in his expectations for the Florida governor.
“DeSantis either needs to win the Iowa caucuses or he needs to be knocking on the door of Donald Trump — meaning he needs to be a very close second,” he said. “I don’t know what that percentage is, but he needs to be a close second. I’d say for sure within 10 [points]. And if not, I’m not sure who stops Trump.”
The Republican Party of Iowa’s presidential caucuses are scheduled for exactly a month from today– Jan. 15, 2024.
