With the state’s rapidly changing demographic, massive voter turnout in the Democratic primary, a surge in coronavirus cases under Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Donald Trump’s poll numbers in free fall, Democrats are starting to believe that this year, Texas—a state that no Democratic presidential candidate has ever won since 1976—is ripe for the taking.
Joe Biden is going on the air with TV ads hitting Gov. Abbott and trolling Donald Trump for their failed response to the coronavirus that led to Texas becoming a hotspot. Per Politico:
Without mentioning Trump or Gov. Greg Abbott by name, Biden, in the Texas-specific spot, positions himself as a leader who “won’t abandon” voters. In a move that seems to troll Trump, Biden urges Texans to do simple things like wash their hands, socially distance and wear masks.
The Biden campaign wouldn’t disclose the size of the ad buy, saying it was part of a multi-state expenditure that was in the mid-six figures.
This comes after news broke over the weekend that Democratic lawmakers are pushing Biden to target states like Texas to not only defeat Trump but to root out Trumpism. According to the New York Times:
In a series of phone calls, Democratic lawmakers and party officials have lobbied Mr. Biden and his top aides to seize what they believe could be a singular opportunity not only to defeat Mr. Trump but to rout him and discredit what they believe is his dangerous style of racial demagogy.
This election, the officials argue, offers the provocative possibility of a new path to the presidency through fast-changing states like Georgia and Texas, and a chance to install a generation of lawmakers who can cement Democratic control of Congress and help redraw legislative maps following this year’s census.
Money talks
They make a very compelling argument but, at the end of the day it all comes down to how much money these candidates have in the bank. While Biden’s fundraising has picked up, he still trails Donald Trump in overall cash on hand. According to Politifact, Trump raised $726 million to Biden’s $491 million. Biden has a much smaller war chest and so, he has to spend smartly.
To make a serious play in Texas, to flip a reliably red state to blue takes considerable resources. In such a massive state of 30 million people, it will take a lot more than running TV ads costing in the “mid-six figures” a sum that even Democrats say is unlikely to make a dent. To turn Texas blue, the Biden campaign is looking at somewhere between $150-$200 million, that’s close to half of his fundraising total. Unless a major donor like Michael Bloomberg is willing to start a super PAC to fund this venture, then that is simply a risk the Biden campaign cannot afford to take.
The harder Biden push in Texas, the less money he will have to spend in key battleground states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. The last thing we need is a repeat of 2016 where Secretary Hillary Clinton poured resources in Arizona while neglecting states like Wisconsin, which she ultimately lost to Donald Trump.
Focus on Florida instead
Biden has numerous paths to 270 electoral votes that do not include Texas. Instead of going big on Texas, he should focus on states that Democrats have a more realistic chance of flipping, like Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida. All of those states are more favorable to Biden and Democrats than Texas is.
Trump’s path to re-election runs directly through Florida. But so far he’s trailing Biden in every poll and with the coronavirus ravaging the state, seniors– one of Trump’s key voting bloc–are scared and turning on him. Florida is where it’s at for Democrats looking to expand the electoral map, it’s where they can deliver the most devastating blow to the Trump re-election. Plus, with Donald Trump forced to spend money playing defense in Texas and Georgia, he’ll have less to spend on Florida and the Great Lakes states.
Don’t give up on Texas
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Biden should ignore Texas, just be smart in his approach.
Democrats playing to win Texas is a big gamble. But the Biden campaign and DNC doing enough to maintain Biden’s presence in the state, through ads, interviews with local media and keeping boots on the ground so he remains competitive and advantageous to down-ballot candidates, should be enough to cause Trump to sweat and spend money to try and keep the state. While $700 million is a lot of money, I would wager that the Trump campaign would much rather spend a huge chunk of that in Florida and Pennsylvania instead of shoring up support in Texas.
Biden won the Texas Democratic primary after spending less than 100,000 dollars in the state. That’s because of his momentum coming off a big win in South Carolina. Right now, Democratic voters are motivated to vote Trump out of office. The signs, so far are pointing to a blue tsunami this November. If it so happens to flip Texas blue then that’s great. But, Biden should not sacrifice the states where he has a much greater shot at winning, for a state that has a long history of voting for any Republican on the ticket, no matter how unpopular they are, cc Sen. Ted Cruz.
