Donald Trump is in a very precarious position with less than five months to go before the November presidential elections. He has been hit hard by the numerous challenges of 2020 and he hasn’t handled them well. He’s losing to Joe Biden by double digits nationally and he’s trailing the former VP in key swing states that are crucial to his reelection victory. On the issues that are driving the 2020 discussion– the coronavirus and racial injustice, his poll numbers are underwater there as well.
Overall, Trump has made his reelection more difficult for himself. To be reelected, he will need the economy to rebound, quickly and experts say that is unlikely to happen. He’ll need suburban voters to return to the party. That’s a tough one because for that to happen the entire Republican party will have to reject Trumpism. Suburban voters began leaving the party in the first place because the Republican brand became too nativist, socially intolerant, and rejecting diversity and inclusion. He’ll also need older white voters back under his tent and I don’t see his message of telling them to die for the dow resonating with that voting bloc. Finally and most importantly, he’ll need to convince the American electorate that his second term will not be as chaotic as his first.
America has developed this habit of reelecting incumbent presidents in modern times, sticking to the evil we know I guess. So, it’s not unheard of for an incumbent to accomplish the feat outlined above—bring people together and convincing the electorate that he deserves another term. But with this president, I just don’t see that happening. The American people are simply too exhausted and quite frankly, Trump is too lazy to do that.
Trump still has a chance
Despite the grim outlook, Trump can still win this November. Incumbents have had to come from behind, overcoming large deficits to be reelected, think Truman in 1948. Unlike Truman’s opponent, Thomas Dewey who ran a low-risk campaign and avoided directly criticizing Truman, Biden is going hard at Trump, hitting him on everything, from his handling of the coronavirus to hiding in a bunker while protesters clashed with police outside the White House.
But Donald Trump is not your average politician. Him winning the presidency after the Access Hollywood tape leaked where he bragged about grabbing women by the pussy, proved that. And, it also proved that you should never count out Donald Trump, ever. Plus, unlike 2016, Donald Trump has the full weight of the United States government behind him, supporting his every move, and with Bill Barr as the head of the DOJ, and Ratcliffe overseeing the intelligence community there’s not much that Donald Trump can’t do.
Voter Suppression
And believe me, he’ll do a lot, because that is what white supremacists do (yeah I went there). They will do whatever is necessary to hold on to power. I mean sure, the latest New York Times/Sienna College poll shows him losing to Joe Biden by double digits, but do the polls really matter when you and your party can suppress the black vote?.
What took place in Kentucky last week during the primary should be a good indicator of what is to come this fall. Voters, especially black voters are energized to vote Trump out of office. But with coronavirus, that disproportionately affects black people and the decision by some local officials to close polling stations in predominantly black counties, these energized voters were placed in a tough spot.
According to the Washington Post, officials in Kentucky reduced the number of polling places in the state from 3,700 in a typical election year to fewer than 200 this month. Meanwhile, thousands of voters have requested mail-in ballot to avoid in person and some did not receive them days before the election on June 23 when they must be postmarked.
Only a single polling station was open in Jefferson County, with a population of 767,000. 20 percent of the population in Jefferson County is African American. This makes the county the center of the state’s black population, according to Mother Jones. There was also one polling station in Fayette County for more than 319,000 residents.
Georgia
We’ve also seen this in Georgia in the 2018 midterms where Stacey Abrams lost to Brian Kemp for governor by 55,000 votes, when some 700,000 young and non-white voters were added to the rolls.
In predominantly black communities in Georgia during the recently concluded primary elections, voters had to wait hours to cast their vote and there was a breakdown in voting machines that so happen to be purchased from a vendor with close ties to Brian Kemp. There were also failures in mail-in voting which saw Stacey Abrams herself receiving an “unusable return envelope”.
Black voters are coming for Trump this November. By suppressing the black vote Trump is taking away Biden’s path to the White House, he’s taking away Biden’s base and he’s silencing the black voice.
Foreign Interference
There’s also this whole issue of Russian interference. The New York Times dropped a bombshell report on Thursday, about Trump being briefed on intel that the Russians were paying bounties to Afghan militants to kill US troops. Donald Trump took no action against the Russians, we do not know the price he paid for looking the other way while Russians kill American troops. What we do know is that the Russian are planning to interfere again in the upcoming elections this November, the US intelligence community, Robert Mueller, the Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee all confirmed this. Also, former national security adviser John Bolton claimed in his book that Trump asked President Xi of China to help him win reelection as well.
At the end of the day, polls don’t matter. I get that they are a snapshot in time, but they don’t account for voter suppression or foreign interference. So, this premature grave dancing some Democrats are engaging in is unnecessary. Don’t watch the polls, they only matter if you vote, stay in line, don’t let Trump, Barr or whoever the fuck else take your voice. Vote in numbers too large to manipulate, because Trump and Barr have something up their sleeves and whatever it is, I guarantee you this, it’s not good.
