The nonpartisan election handicapper, Cook Political Report, shifted Texas’ Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” on Tuesday due to incumbent senator Ted Cruz’s closer-than-expected re-election bid against Democrat Colin Allred.
Cook Political Report noted that Allred’s fundraising is keeping the race competitive along with abortion (Texas has one of the most restrictive abortion bans in the country) and the senator fleeing the state to Cancún during a severe winter storm in 2021.
“The contest is closer than once thought, which the spending bears out, and Allred is raising plenty of money to keep the race competitive,” the report said. “As such, it moves to Lean Republican.”
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has also announced it will make a new investment of millions of dollars into Allred’s campaign to pay for television advertising. It will be in addition to the ads paid for by Allred’s campaign.
“Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense,” DSCC Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.) said in a statement to The Hill.
“All cycle long the DSCC has been preparing to take advantage of Sens. Cruz and Scott’s damaged standings in their states — and now our efforts in Texas and Florida are accelerating,” Peters continued. “Democrats have strong candidates running effective campaigns in both states, and as we escalate our communications against Sens. Cruz and Scott we will crystallize the case against them.”
Cruz, meanwhile, has been making the rounds in conservative media pleading for donations to his campaign.
“There’s no doubt Texas is a battleground today,” Cruz said on Newsmax’s ‘Wake up America’ Tuesday morning. “Chuck Schumer has been explicit. I’m his number one target in the country, and the Democrats are spending over $100 million…..They are coming after me with everything they got.”
The last time Texans elected a Democrat to the United States Senate was in 1988. Beto O’Rourke came close to defeating Cruz in 2018, falling short by just 2.4 percentage points.
A Public Policy Polling/Clean and Prosperous America survey of 759 registered Texas voters released Monday showed Cruz is ahead of Allred by 1 point, 47 percent to 46 percent.
A Morning Consult poll of 2,716 likely Texas voters, released late last month showed Allred ahead of Cruz by one point 45 percent to his 44 percent.
Still, Cook Political Report warns that Democrats will have an uphill battle to flip the state in November, especially since it’s a presidential election year.
“We still think this race remains tough for Allred, and that winning those last few points in Texas will be a herculean task,” the report reads. “Republicans say they are now beginning to drive up Allred’s negatives as well as more money pours in, and an Oct. 15 debate will also be crucial.”
