Back in July I asked myself this question, ‘Should Biden go big in Texas?’ my answer at that time was a strong ‘maybe’.
Back then, the Trump campaign was flushed with cash. They had just raised a massive $726 million in total compared to the Biden campaign’s total amount of $491 million. Polls at the time showed anything from a Biden lead of +2 to a Trump lead of +7. I argued that the campaign simply did not have the money to compete in a state as large as Texas. A state Trump won by 9 points in 2016 and no Democratic presidential candidate has ever won since 1976. Plus, I was still recovering from Beto O’Rourke’s loss to a very unpopular Ted Cruz even after O’Rourke out raised him by alot.
Since Biden’s fundraising was dwarfed by Donald Trump’s, I argued that the money should be spent wisely elsewhere in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida instead of making a serious play to try and win Texas.
That was back in July. Alot has changed since then.
Three months later with just 9 days to go before the election, I asked myself again, ‘Should Biden go big in Texas?’, my answer now is FUCK YES!.
Joe Biden didn’t do anything to disqualify himself in the two presidential debates and the one town hall that replaced the second debate. In fact, it is widely believed that he won all three, easily. So, the electoral map, which was already favorable to him heading into the debates remains unchanged. Biden still has a clear path to 270 and Trump’s path grows slimmer by the day.
The money race is also different from three months ago. Biden now has the cash advantage heading into the final days of the campaign. According to the New York Times, Biden ended September with $177 million cash in the bank while Trump ended with just $63.1 million.
Trump’s position is so precarious that a large portion of that $63.1 million will be used to play defense in states that he won in 2016, like the Great Lakes States, Georgia, Florida and yes Texas.
Biden, with a much bigger war chest can expand his electoral map into states like Texas without hurting his chances in critical swing states where he’s currently leading.
There are signs that Texas may not be Democrats proverbial white whale for much longer. Changing latino, black and asian demographic and an increase in voter turnout makes the state winnable for Democrats, not just at the top of the ticket but down ballot as well in those crucial races to determine realignment.
A Quinnipiac poll released on Wednesday showed Democrat M.J. Hegar trailing incumbent senator John Cornyn by six points. Cornyn won the state by more than 27 points in 2014. The same poll shows Biden and Trump tied at 47% a piece. On Sunday, the Dallas Morning News and University of Texas poll shows Biden with a slight 2 percent lead, 48% to Trump’s 46%. Biden’s lead is mainly due to an increase in Hispanic support.
If Biden wins Texas, the election will be over on election night. That’s why his running mate Sen. Kamala Harris is going to the state next week.
If Biden carries Texas’ 38 electoral votes, Trump’s path to re-election becomes impossible. If Biden carries Texas then the election will leave no doubt, it will be a landslide. Trump will have to leave office embarrassed that he lost to the man he calls “the worst presidential candidate in history.”